Ealy...or Sanks?

I've been reading so much over the past few days regarding Ealy's fumble against MSU, that I'm curious as to which fumble now holds more infamy for Georgia fans. People are ROASTING Washaun for not diving on that ball, and I'm not happy about it either. When it happened, though, I questioned whether a whistle blew before the MSU players jumped on it.

Either way, Ealy didn't recover it - and his statement saying he saw the ball but didn't attempt a recovery because he thought he heard whistle, is just plain dumb.

Still....is it worse than Jasper Sanks' fumble and subsequent "I set the ball down" explanation?

The rabid Georgia fan will say that the Dawgs were screwed on both calls. With Jasper, the ball was out on the 1. A GT player picked it up, retreated into the endzone and was down. That should be a safety. It was ruled a touchback. With Washaun, if the whistle was truly blown, then the recovery never happened. That means the ball should have belonged to UGA at the point of the fumble.


Personally, I gotta go with Jasper's as the worst of the two.

Time to get rid of him?

The man rides into town to take a proud program and lift it up from mediocrity to the place where all Bulldawg fans believe it should be. What does he do? He wins two championships in his first 5 seasons. In his next four, however, his teams bumble through, and he has one year where folks think "that team was pretty good - maybe they deserve a title"...but it isn't so. They lost when they needed to win, and were rewarded with only a bowl victory.

His team loses four games in its tenth season.

Is it time to get rid of him?


By the way, the year is 1973, and Vince Dooley is the coach. Do you fire him after that season?

How about after 1974, when the Dawgs are 6-6?

1975, when the team musters 9 wins?


If you answer yes to any of these, then you miss out on UGA's 1976 SEC title, the three year run of SEC titles from 1980-1983, oh, and that pesky little National Title in 1980.


People say Mark Richt has been given enough rope to hang himself. These people talk about the "Vince Dooley Era" as orchestrated by God Himself. Guess what...I wasn't around during that glory age. So, I look back on it without emotion. I look back on it through more rational eyes. If you're calling for the firing of Mark Richt because the program is in a "Decline" in your eyes, then you need to look back at the span of years following Dooley's 1968 title season.

1968: 8 -1 - 2 SEC Champions

1969: 5-5
1970: 5-5
1971: 11-1
1972: 7-4
1973: 7-4
1974: 6-6
1975: 9-3

1976: 10-2 SEC champions

I'm willing to bet the folks who are screaming the loudest for the firing of Richt are the same ones who in 1970 and 1974 were asking for patience for Dooley. I say this, because in my own personal circle, those crying out for Richt to be fired are of the 45-70 age range. Roll that back about 36 years....you have nine year-old kids who didn't really care about who's coaching a football team, up to 34 year olds, who remember more fondly the years when Dooley had brought titles, and wanted him to succeed again.

What happened? He succeeded again.

Vince Dooley was a very good coach in his time. He raised Bulldawg Football to a level that was unmatched for years, until Mark Richt came to the University of Georgia. How then, can those who supported Dooley so long ago be so against Mark Richt? People who say Richt's program should be better than it is in its tenth year, need to look back at the 9th, 10th, and 11th years of Dooley's program. They weren't pretty.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Football is cyclical. We have a very good coach at the top of this program, and he will bring us back up. That's what winners do, and Mark Richt is a winner.


Go Dawgs.

Mike Bobo as UGA OC

Mike Bobo officially took over as UGA's playcaller for the Georgia Tech game in 2006. That first game wasn't a barn-burner, but he was able to earn a victory. Against Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, his offense caught fire in the second half, and was able to come-back against the nation's top Defense. Things looked good for him.

2007 - Looking better than it is

At the end of the 2007 season, many thought UGA deserved some kind of shot at the National Title. Looking over the season, we find that Georgia only faced one great defense, defeating them. However, in two losses, Georgia's offense completely failed to show up, costing us an opportunity to play for just that. Who won the title that season? A 2-loss LSU team. In wins against Vandy and Kentucky, we failed to score more than the average opponent - and these were not great defenses. Overall, the output by an offense for a first-year OC wasn't awful, but three games weren't great, and that's enough to keep you out of a title game. The six game run the team went on to close the season had many people believing that UGA would be the #1 team in 2008, and the preseason polls said as much.

2008 - What could have been

2008, by the standards I've set in this analysis, may very well be the best performance by a UGA offense during the past 10 years. We all rememeber 2008 as a complete failure. We think of what a waste it was. When we think that way, I think we miss out on what that team actually DID accomplish. Was the offensive output versus South Carolina woeful? It was. But, the defense was able to do enough for us to win the game. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for the AL, FL and GT games. Those three games were the beginning of the end for Coach Willie Martinez. With the exception of the USC game, Bobo's offense in 2008 was statistically very very good. Situationally, you could make an argument against it, but had the defense been up to snuff, you should be able to infer that the season would have been drastically different. We had all-world RB Knowshon Moreno, yet it was the passing game which was much more impressive. A stretch of the final 5 games of 2008 show a decline in our running game, though its hard to say how much of that is game plan and how much is execution. We played three elite defenses, and outperformed the average opponent against them...but we lost two of those games because our own defense couldn't keep pace. Also, costly turnovers hurt us - and that's not gameplan. That's execution.....something that was really lacking in 2009.

2009 - The end of the second term

The running woes continued throughout the the first half of this season, and when the scond half hit and UGA's running game took off, many people took that as a good sign. But look at the stats. We were hardly facing amazing defenses. Did we run better than the average opponent? Yes. But did the average opponent pile up ridiculous yards? Yes as well. Did our defense help us? Not much. But, you can't call games against OSU or LSU defensive losses. The game against Kentucky certainly wasn't lost because of the defense. Against OSU and LSU we simply didn't get it done on offense. Against Kentucky, the gameplan was there, but the execution was terrible in the second half. We outperformed the average opponent against the only elite defense we faced in Florida, but we didn't do enough to win. 2009 was a season most of us would like to forget, I'm sure not the least of which is Mike Bobo.

He's had less years, but in just over three years of playcalling, these are Mike Bobo's numbers:

In 38 games,

Mike Bobo's Offenses failed to outperform the average in SCORING in 34% of games.

Mike Bobo's Offenses failed to outperform the average in Total Offense in 34% of games.

Mike Bobo's Offenses failed to outperform the average in Passing O in 47% of games.

Mike Bobo's Offenses failed to outperform the average in Rushing O in 53% of games.

So, comparing Bobo to Richt, you learn that Bobo's offenses Rush about the same, aren't as good in the passing game, but ultimately outscore the opposition's average to a much higher degree.

Still, some say that Bobo isn't good enough to be the OC at UGA. They say if we want to win titles, we have to get a new OC. I submit that we could have won one in 2008 had the defense been worth its snuff. Then again, the offense cost us in 2007...so I suppose that's a wash. So far in 2010, we're out of the race, and we should place that firmly on the offense. How does he stack up AGAINST championship offenses? I'll put that to the test in my next installment.

Go Dawgs.

Mark Richt as UGA's OC...

Many people have jumped on the public outcry that Mike Bobo be removed from his playcalling duties, and that Mark Richt should once again be the HMIC of the Offense. I have some friends who believe that would be an unmitigated disaster. Luckily for me, the offensive statistics I've been digging into lately do a good job of painting a picture of Richt's term as OC at UGA.

I'll lay it out there, you decide what you will.

KEY:

BLACK = a game where I believe the offense completely underperformed

YELLOW= our output was basically on-par with what the average offense did against our opponent

GREEN = A defense which is a "top 20" type defense

RED = a LOSS in the "opponent" column, a SUB-PAR performance in all other columns
Dark Grey Row = Non D-1A opponent, not tracked.

When I remember the "glory" years of Richt's tenure, I remember stout defenses and efficient offenses. When I look back at the statistics, I see some games where our teams racked up 500 and 600 yards of offense. That's none too shabby. But, you also have to look at the competition, and think about the fact that those stout defenses did a good job of giving us more possessions, with better field position. Here, in image form, are the statistics I've uncovered displaying Richt's tenure as OC.

2001 - The Beginning

In the 2001 season, Richt's offense was brand new to UGA. There were questions about whether he had the talent that he wanted in the system. That team played all D-I level teams, but only one elite defense and went 8-4 (8-3 plus a bowl loss). In twelve games, Richt's offense underperformed* the average competition only twice, losing one of those games. However,
in three other losses, the Dawgs could not get into the endzone often enough to win. It's interesting to note that against the one elite defense UGA faced in that season, they did not underperform as a whole, but did fail to score as many points as the average opponent. Of course, if memory serves, in the early days of this offense, touchdowns came at a premium. In fact, in that first year, we can see that Georgia only outperformed the average team's scoring in 5 of those 12 games.

* Defining an "underperformance" is a difficult thing. Most people would say that if you score less on offense than the other team gives up on average, your offense has underperformed. Others would say that if you fail to gain what the other team gives up on average, you have underperformed. However, neither of these take into account game situation. It's possible that a defense continually gets the offense the ball in favorable field position, resulting in low yardage totals. There is also the opposite - that the defense forces the offense to drive long all day, which it does, but can not succeed at getting into the endzone often on those 85 and 90 yard drives. This is why we must look at eveything together. When an offense is failing to perform up to the average in the majority of categories, I think it's safe to say this is an overall underperformance.

2002 - Champions

This is the season most people remember as UGA really putting it all together. In fact, there were only two games during that season which look to me like overall failures on the part of the offense. Against Clemson, we failed to gain significantly, but I believe that was du to situations in the game. I beleive we won 31-0....which would say the defense was lights-out. As I stated before, playing with a short field can often lead to lower output totals. I think it's important to note that UGA faced two elite defenses in this season, and performed better than the average against both. Against South Carolina, our defense (in the form of David Pollack) saved our asses as we failed to score an offensive touchdown. Then, against FL, we had a total offensive letdown, and it very likely cost us a national title shot. I attended the Sugar Bowl, and it was a sleepy, boring game. Richt seemed content to ride Musa Smith and simply grind one out against his former team. The offense was anything but electric. But, in this season Richt did a good job of beating up on the teams we should beat, and even pulled out victories against the teams that perhaps we shouldn't. We had two MAJOR offensive hiccups, and won one of those games. Oh, and we went 13-1. That is the kind of performance the Dawgfans are seeking today.

2003 - Beaten by Champions

Richt's 2003 offense only underperformed in two games - against UAB and Vandy. This was bizzare. These were two teams who didn't rank incredibly high on the defensive side of the ball. Still, we didn't get it done like we should against them. Ours was a team who had just gone 13-1 and didn't lose a truckload of talent going into 2003. We were pretty good, but in two games against eventual National Champion LSU, we performed ON PAR with their average competition in terms of scoring. That's just not how you win titles. A division crown? Maybe...but we won that because the other teams in the East couldn't leg it out. Flordia beat us, but had three losses in the SEC. Still, overall, the offense performed pretty well. We outperformed the average against two elite defenses, and were on-par with the average against the best defense in the country, LSU.

2004 - Dissappointments abound

David Greene, senior QB. David Pollack, Senior DE. This was going to be the end of an era in Georgia football, and we all fully expected a title. We'd won the east twice in a row, and had been within fifteen minutes of going undefeated two years earlier. In the fourth week of the season, UGA faced the first of three elite defenses in reigning national champion LSU, and beat the pants off them. Then, the unexplainable - we fell completely apart in a game against middle-of the pack Tennessee. UGA carried a four-year winning streak into that game, and pissed away a chance at a title with that loss. Somehow, our offense simply never got clicking. We wouldn't underperfom again until running into a stout Auburn team on their way to a 14-0 season, and NO SHOT at the title. We outpaced a good Wisconsin team in our bowl game to claim a 10-2 season, but it was far less than we imagined coming into that year.

2005 - Unimpressive Champions

After the year that wasn't, there was excitement with a redshirt senior returning for his time in the spotlight. DJ Shockley was ever the foil to David Greene, with his athletic ability surpassing his pure quarterbacking skills. I expected our offense to go very much to the option, but it did not. We became a shotgun-read type offense. We ran alot of split-back, and we won games against some good defenses. Points, though, did not flow freely from the offense once again. We did beat up on some of the worst teams we faced, but we defintely didn't crush mid-level teams like Mississippi State and Arkansas. We lost to Auburn for a second straight year, and due to an injury to starting QB DJ Shockley, dipped back into the L column against FL once more. The offense went through a five-game stretch at the end of the season which had four poor offensive performances, and was only able to win three games. We rebounded by dismantling a great LSU defense in the SEC title game, but it took us nearly three quarters to catch fire against WVU in the Sugar Bowl, a game we lost when our special teams failed to stop a fake punt late in the fourth. Despite winning his second SEC title in his first five seasons, Richt heard clamoring among UGA supporters who complained about his playcalling. Many suggested that the duties of an HC and an OC are too much for one man to handle. The next season, it appears that point may have been proven.

2006 - a New Beginning

In 2006 Richt was faced with something he hadn't dealt with since 2001. He had no real experience at Quarterback. He had three options - 1)Joe Tereshinski, a backup who had been serviceable in some situations, but never spectacular. Joe had done everything UGA had ever asked of him, was a legacy player, and was as selfless as they come. 2) Joe Cox, a redshirt freshman who had a ridiculous highschool record, tossed 60+ touchdowns in his senior year, and had been absorbing Richt's system for a year. 3)Matt Stafford, a true freshman ESPN Top 150 recruit who drew comparisons to NFL QBs while still in high school. Richt had no clear-cut winner of the job after fall camp (which,when that's true, I think you bench the senior. If he can't clearly beat two freshmen, you sit him) and tested all three in game situations over the first few weeks of the season. Georgia was 5-0 when Tennessee came calling, but the offense had been anything but inspirational. We had squeeked by too long, and the wheels came off against the Volunteers. The offense never found its footing. Georgia lost four of five starting with that game, and only performed significantly better than average against one defense, Mississippi State, who was awful. Richt's next game would be his final as the signal caller for UGA. In the 2006 game against Auburn, a team that boasted a top-20 defense, Richt's offense piled up 30 points, over 16 more than the average team against picked up against Auburn. The offense fired on all cylinders, and some questioned whether or not Richt actually called that game. The next week, Mike Bobo was announced as the playcaller for the Georgia Tech game, leading folks to believe that perhaps Bobo was behind the playcalling that dismantled Auburn as well.

So, that's nearly six years of playcalls by Mark Richt. He had some good seasons, and he had some bad ones. What I don't understand is how people believe his playcalling to be significantly better than Bobo's. When I look at my humble numbers, I find the following:

Richt's offenses failed to outperform the average offense 28% of the time.

Richt's offenses failed to outperform in SCORING 55% of the time.

Richt's offenses failed to outperform in Total Yards 38% of the time.

Richt's offenses failed to outperform in Passing Yards 38% of the time.

Richt's offenses failed to outperform in Rushing Yards 52% of the time.

Now, this DOES NOT take into account any kind of situational differences such as not rushing the ball often because passing was working so well, or playing on a short field. BUT, all statistical analyses are limited in some way.

If you ask me, there are two glaring areas in which Richt's offenses failed to perform. We didn't run the ball particularly well, and we weren't great at scoring touchdowns. If you ask any SEC fan the two things that win titles on offense, they'll say running the football, and scoring touchdowns.

Maybe Richt was right to hand the playcalling over to Bobo. We'll see in the next blog.

Go Dawgs.

We are terrible, and you can't blame it all on Penn Wagers.

There's not much else to say.

Explain things away in whatever manner you want to, but we are awful.

Murray made so many fresman mistakes in this game, I stopped keeping count. MSU's #34 should have 3 interceptions and be on award lists after this game. Murray couldn't stare a receiver down more than he did in this game if he tried to.

We continue to ride the I-formation but a underperforming offensive line and backs who don't really seem to have great vision aren't what brings success out of that formation.

Our defense was on the field all night again, and that poses problems that are multi-fold. First, we can't score. Second, our D gets tired and can't stop teams late. Third, we lose clock.

The commentators are talking about resetting goals and reevaluating things. Man, that's an understatement if there ever was one. Georgia is in the bottom of the SEC East. AT the moment, the bottom of the rung looks like a mile away. We play Colorado next week, which will be a nice respite from the SEC...but we still are a long way from being a good football team.

We don't get a consistent pass rush.

Our running game is virtually non-existent.

We still haven't really cut Murray loose.

For some reason we're trying to run 2007's offense, when we should be running 2005's.

We are awful.


Go Dawgs.

This should come as no surprise...

I'm still working on my statistical dive into the last decade of UGA football and the past 4 National Champions, all out of the SEC.

I'll hit you with some quick highlights -

2009 - Alabama's offense "underachieved" in 15.38% of its games.

2008 - Florida's offense "underachieved" in 0% of its games.

2007 - LSU's offense "underachieved" in 7.69% of its games.

2006 - Florida's offense "underachieved" in 0% of its games.


From 2006 (Ga Tech)-2009, Bobo's offenses "underachieved" in 21.05% of their games.

From 2001-2006 (Auburn) Richt's offenses "underachieved" in 31.43% of their games.

Now, it's unfair to lump ALL of the UGA offenses together and then look at the other teams for only one year. So, I'll be comparing single-year results in a later blog. I just wanted to hit you guys up with this one, and let you know that I'm still working away. It's a ton of data.

Go Dawgs.

Revisiting the Bobo Assessment

I was urged by a reader to look deeper into the statistics I gathered, and so I've done so. I'm sure that when I complete the research I mentioned to him, even more will be revealed. For now, though, still sticking with the statistics I have already compiled, I show the following:

2006 - UGA's offense under-performed offensively in one out of the two games Bobo called.
- 1/2 = 50%

2007 - UGA under-performed offensively in three games, losing two.
- 3/12 = 25%

2008 - UGA under-performed offensively in one game.
- 1/12 = 8%

2009 - UGA under-performed offensively in three games, losing all three.
- 3/12 = 25%

Now, these totals seem far better than what I had in my original assessment. Part of this is because I went back and looked at games where only one area of the offense was "lacking." When I did that, I eliminated that game as an "under-performance" if we made up for that lacking by increasing the other phase of the game by close to the same amount or greater. For instance, in the 2008 game against Georgia Tech, our running game was sub-par by 40 yards, but our passing game was 214 yards better than what teams usually accomplished against them. So, that's a wash - apparently a game-plan difference.

Using THAT analysis, we see that Bobo's offenses in 2008 actually performed much better against the competition than their average opponent's offenses than the 2007 versions. However, people think of 2007 as being a much better season. Now, add to that the fact that in all three of our losses, our offense performed by-and-large BETTER against the teams who beat us than the average opponent did, and you get a different idea about 2008 altogether. Admittedly, of course, these statistics do not take into account SITUATION. Alabama was up on us 30-0 at the half. We did most of our damage in the last quarter and a half. The same is very true in the Florida game. Against Georgia Tech, our defense fell apart in the second half, and we couldn't keep pace with Tech's option. The funniest part? None of these games are the game that our offense under-performed. That was against South Carolina, where we were in the red in all four categories. In our two blowout losses, we were never in those games, and that's what causes the frustration on the part of the fanbase. When we faced the best teams, we didn't look competitive.

The question was posed to me - if these success percentages are too low, what am I looking for? Well...I want to see our offense perform better against our competition than the average offense does EVERY SINGLE WEEK. Why? Because I want our team to be the best. If our team is the best, we won't perform below AVERAGE. I will be looking into how the last four National Champions performed using this same analysis, because my hypothesis is that they did much better than we did. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. We'll see.


Also - if anyone knows a good way to set up a table online so that you guys can have access to my raw data, let me know. I'd love for you to be able to look at the same thing I am, but there's no way I'm "html"ing this many cells.


Go Dawgs.